Tagged: National League
AL vs. NL: The Success of Regular Season Champions
In the previous blog post, I talked about how the Phillies regular season dominance does not guarantee that they will be successful in October. However, is the lack of success among National League teams that finished with the best record mirrored by the American League? Let’s see what the numbers say.
Team with the Best Record in the MLB:
| Era | National League | American League |
| 1903-1968 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| 1969-1993 | 44% | 56% |
| 1995-2010 | 43.8% | 56.2% |
Team With the Best Record in the MLB Winning the Pennant:
| Era | National League | American League |
| 1903-1968 | 100% | 100% |
| 1969-1993 | 54.5% | 78.6% |
| 1995-2010 | 28.6% | 44.4% |
The Team with the Best Record in the MLB Winning the World Series:
| Era | National League | American League |
| 1903-1968 | 41.7% | 64.3% |
| 1969-1993 | 27.3% | 28.5% |
| 1995-2010 | 0% | 33.3% |
These numbers show that historically an AL team who finishes with the best record in the MLB has been more successful than their NL counterparts in winning the pennant and the World Series. This also holds true for each era. While the introduction of Championship Series in 1969 and Divisional Series in 1995 have reduced the likelihood that the team with the best record will win the pennant and/or World Series, the AL still maintains an advantage. What could be the source of this disparity? Well, let’s look at what the numbers would look like if we took the achievements of the New York Yankees out of the equation.
Team with the Best Record in the MLB (w/0 Yankees):
| Era | National League | American League |
| 1903-1968 | 54.5% (+18.1) | 45.4% (-18.2) |
| 1969-1993 | 47.8% (+3.8) | 52.2% (-3.8) |
| 1995-2010 | 58.3% (+14.5) | 41.7% (-14.5) |
Team With the Best Record in the MLB Winning the Pennant (w/o Yankees):
| Era | National League | American League |
| 1903-1968 | 100% | 100% |
| 1969-1993 | 54.5% | 83.3% (+4.7) |
| 1995-2010 | 28.6% | 40.0% (-4.4) |
The Team with the Best Record in the MLB Winning the World Series:
| Era | National League | American League |
| 1903-1968 | 52.6% (+10.9) | 55% (-9.3) |
| 1969-1993 | 27.3% | 27.3% (-1.2) |
| 1995-2010 | 0% | 33.3% |
First, understand the method that was chosen was not perfect and it will be described at the end of the blog. However, the presence of the Yankees has given the AL an advantage over the NL when it comes to having teams that succeed in both the regular season and the playoffs.
The Yankees may provide the AL teams with external pressures to innovate and build rosters. And in the attempt to catch up with the Yankees the AL has had a motivating factor the NL did not have. While that is a speculation, here is what is not. The Yankees give the American League dominant team. Dominant teams the National League has not often had. The National League has only 13 teams that have had the best record in the Majors and won the World Series. The Yankees have 20 teams who have accomplished such a feat.
One could look at lists made about the greatest teams in the history of baseball and two things are certain. The list will be AL dominant and the Yankees will have by far the most representatives of any other franchise. For example, Tom Verducci’s list of the 10 greatest baseball teams includes five Yankees teams (’27, ’39, ’98, ’61, ’32) and only two NL teams from the World Series era (’75 Reds and 1907 Cubs). The Sporting News’ list contains five Yankee teams (’27, ’39, ’98, ’61, ’53) and three NL teams (’75 Reds, ’55 Dodgers, ’42 Cardinals). Roger Weber’s list for Baseball Almanac had four Yankees teams (’27, ’39, ’32, and ’98) and three NL teams from the World Series era (1907 Cubs, 1905 Giants, and 1906 Cubs)[1].
There may be another reason behind the success of these teams when they come from the AL. For example, the end of the Dead Ball Era coincides with the dominance of AL teams. Could it be possible that National League teams did not adjust to the changing times and clung onto players, managers, and a philosophy of playing the game that was anachronistic? I have no clue no being a baseball historian. But, we all know the legends that have played on so many great Yankees teams, that it is hard to dispute that the gap between the AL and NL is not, at the very least, the fault of the New York Yankees.
2011 Phillies: Regular Season Success Means Little In October
Barring an absolute collapse, the Phillies look primed to win more than 100 games and have the best record in all of baseball. They are ahead of the Yankees by 7 games in the loss column. Even if the Yankees won all their games from here on out, the Phillies would only need to go 12-6 to be the sole possessors of the best record in the MLB. This comes as no surprise. In the weaker league and with a pitching staff as deep as the 1997 Braves, it would have been a surprise if they did not win the National League at least.
Now, does the Phillies regular season dominance mean anything come October? How much is regular season prowess correlated to winning the World Series? Let’s look back at the history of NL teams that have ended the regular season with the best record in the Majors.
Since the World Series started in 1903, a team in the National League has finished with the best record in 42 seasons or 39.2% of the time [1]. Looking at the 18 teams who accomplished this after 1968[2], only eight made it to the World Series (44.4%). However, after the 1994 season[3], only two of the seven teams made it to the Fall Classic (28.6%).
Let’s take it a step further and look how these regular season titans did when it came to winning the World Series. Of those 42 teams, only 13 teams have won the World Series giving those teams a success rate of 31.0%. However, only three of those World Series champions won after 1968. With 18 NL teams having finished with the best record, since 1968, the success rate of those squads was 16.7%. And since 1994, no National League team has won the World Series after achieving the best record in the MLB.
Obviously it looks like the Phillies regular season dominance guarantees them nothing when it comes to the playoffs[4].
While the Phillies pitching speaks for itself, the age and the offense of the Phillies raise some red flags. The Philles have the oldest batting age in all the MLB at 31.5 years. Compare this to the ’86 Mets (28.0), ’76 Reds (29.3), and the ’75 Reds (28.6). In fact, should the Phillies win the World Series this season, they would have the third oldest batting age of a World Series champion[5].
Offensively, the Philles are a slightly above average offense putting up a team slash line of .255/.325/.402. Compare that to the more prolific offenses of the Mets and the Reds. The ’86 Mets put up a slash line of .263/.339/.401 and lead the NL in each of those categories. The ’75 Reds had a slash line of .271/.353/.401 which ranked 2/1/3 in the NL. The ’76 Reds led the MLB in each slash line category posting a .280/.357/.424 line.
While the Phillies pitching staff is better than those three teams, the margin of error for the staff is small. Last season, the Phillies ran into a staff that could match them pitch for pitch in the San Francisco Giants. This year, they could potentially avoid such a team due to the question marks about the health of Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens of the Braves. There is one team that the Phillies must be wary of in the NL and that is the Milwaukee Brewers.
In a series against the Phillies, the Brewers have the better overall lineup. They would have four of the six best offensive players in the series. Then, factor in the uncertainty of Jimmy Rollin’s and Chase Utley’s health going into the playoffs and the Brewers have a big advantage offensively.
While the pitching of the Brewers does not match that of the Phillies, they have the right kind of pitchers to win in the postseason. Their trio of starters (Gallardo, Greinke, and Marcum) are all pitchers who can get strikeouts when they need them. In the playoffs, that is a critical aspect of starting pitching since it helps pitchers get out of jams with minimal damage. When comparing the bullpen’s it pretty much a wash.
The Phillies have had a remarkable regular season and there is no one who can take that away from them. However, World Series are only lost from April to September. They are won in October. So once the playoffs begin, you can throw out the regular season records. In baseball, all you have to do is get in and you have a shot at becoming champions.
90% is Half Statistical 